Not a Vox Populi, but a Vox Expertorum (F. H. Perry-Coste, 1907)

In reference to the weight-judging competition, Mr. Galton says that “the average competitor was probably as well fitted for making a just estimate of the dressed weight of the ox as an average voter is of judging the merits of most political issues on which he votes.” These competitions are very popular in Cornwall; but I do not think that Mr. Galton at all realises how large a percentage of the voters–the great majority, I should suspect–are butchers, farmers, or men otherwise occupied with cattle. To these men the ability to estimate the meat-equivalent weight of a living animal is an essential part of their business; and, as an instance of their training, I may mention that one of the butchers here has a son under thirteen years of age who is an adept at this work, and is already, I am told, one of the best weight-judges in the district. This boy has been trained to it by his father, and already surpasses his instructor. Moreover, many of the competitors doubtlessly compete frequently, compare notes afterwards, and correct future estimates by past experience. Now the point of all this is that, in so far as this state of things prevails, we have to deal with, not a vox populi, but a vox expertorum. I am afraid that the majority of such competitors know far more of their business, are far better trained, and are better fitted to form a judgement, than are the majority of voters of any party, and of either the uneducated or the so-called “educated” classes. I heartily wish that the case were otherwise.

The Ballot-Box (Francis Galton, 1907)

I inferred that many non-experts were among the competitors, (1) because they were too numerous (about 800) to be mostly experts; (2) because of the abnormally wide vagaries of judgement at either end of the scale; (3) because of the prevalence of a sporting instinct, such as leads persons who know little about horses to bet on races. But I have no facts whereby to test the truth of my inference. It would be of service in future competitions if a line headed “Occupation” were inserted in the cards, after those for the address.

Reference